Improved Assessment of Storm Surge Risk in Macau under Sea Level Rising

Abstract

Due to a combination of global warming and sea level rising, coastal cities are facing an including risk of flooding during storms. The Macau SAR is a small, highly urbanized and densely populated city, particularly vulnerable to typhoons and storm surges. In 2017, Typhoon Hato made landfall near Macau, causing catastrophic damage to the city with more than 150 people injured or deaths and MOP 9.045 billion of direct economic loss. Assessing the vulnerability of Macau and its resilience to storm surges of different intensities is essential for future disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, an assessment framework of storm surge hazards in Macau is developed. In the framework, a system of assessment indicators is proposed, which includes hazard indexes, social vulnerability indexes, and disaster-bearing capacity indexes. The subjective, objective as well as the composite weights of these indices are determined. The whole domain of Macau is divided into 107 regions for the hazard assessment. Based on the collected data of society and economics, the vulnerability level of each region to storm surge is evaluated. Taking the super severe typhoon Hato as a typical case, the hazard level and integrated risk level of storm surge hazard in Macau are assessed. Further, considering different values of sea level rising, the hazard levels and integrated risk levels in Macau under a similar typhoon to Hato are estimated. The research in this paper may contribute to the improvement of disaster prevention and mitigation, emergency management and further urban planning.