Prediction of occurrence of in uenza A and B in Macao using meteorological factors

Abstract

The emergence of in uenza A and B poses a serve threat to human beings. Previous studies have proposed that climatic factors are asso- ciated with the occurrence of in uenza, however, their possible lagged and interactive e ects were commonly neglected. To estimate e ects of meteorological factors on in uenza outbreaks, weekly con rmed cases of in uenza cases together with their weekly positive rate from Macao Kiang Wu hospital and meteorological fac- tors including average temperature, average temperature di erence, average relative humidity, total rainfall and sunshine duration in Macao were analyzed. Separate models were built for in uenza type A and type B using generalized additive model, which were then applied on new meteorological data for short-term prediction. We concluded that meteorological factors had signi cant lagged and interactive e ects on in uenza type A and B, where their major driving factors are not the same. In uenza A is mainly e ected by lagged rainfall and the interaction of average temperature and sun- shine duration, where major driving factors of in uenza B are the lagged average temperature and interaction of relative humidity and rainfall.